1776 — Independence
The year 1776 marks the political break between the American colonies and the British Empire. In the logic of the chart, this is the starting point for the later struggle between two economic directions: a national-development model and a British-style free-trade model. Hamilton’s economic system had not yet been formulated, but independence created the political possibility for the United States to develop its own sovereign economic policy. For that reason, the Hamiltonian side begins above the midpoint, even though the full American System would only emerge later.
1789 — Hamilton’s period
In 1789, Alexander Hamilton entered government as Secretary of the Treasury under George Washington. His program sought to build national credit, consolidate public debt, establish a national bank, encourage manufacturing, and give the federal government a stronger role in economic development. This period is one of the clearest early expressions of the American System tradition. The chart therefore shows the Hamiltonian curve rising during this phase, because Hamilton’s policies strengthened national economic sovereignty and state capacity.
1861 — Lincoln / Civil War
The year 1861 marks both Abraham Lincoln’s entry into the presidency and the beginning of the Civil War. In the chart, this is treated as a major revival of Hamiltonian principles. Lincoln’s administration supported protective tariffs, national banking legislation, railroad development, land settlement, and large-scale federal mobilization. Measures such as the Morrill Tariff, the National Banking Acts, the Homestead Act, and the Pacific Railway Acts all fit the broader American System tradition. The sharp rise in the Hamiltonian curve reflects the extraordinary expansion of national economic coordination during the war.
1897 — McKinley
William McKinley’s presidency, beginning in 1897, is marked as a high point of late-19th-century protectionism. McKinley was strongly associated with tariff-based industrial policy and a pro-manufacturing national economic orientation. In the interpretation used by the chart, this makes his period one of the strongest expressions of the American System after the Civil War. The Hamiltonian curve is therefore placed near a peak during this period, reflecting the dominance of protectionist and industrial-national policies.
1913 — Federal Reserve / Hamiltonian weakening
The establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913 is treated in the chart as the beginning of a weakening of the Hamiltonian model. The chart interprets the new central banking structure as a shift away from a more direct national-credit model. Monetary and financial power became more institutionalized through a central banking framework with strong private-bank influence. For that reason, the Hamiltonian curve begins to weaken after this point.
1917 — World War I
The United States entered World War I in 1917. Wartime mobilization temporarily increased the role of the federal government in finance, production, logistics, and industrial coordination. This gave the Hamiltonian side a short-term boost, because war required national planning and coordination. However, the rise was temporary, since after the war the United States moved back toward a system more dominated by private markets and financial interests.
1933 — Roosevelt / New Deal
Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in 1933 during the Great Depression. His New Deal policies expanded the role of the federal government in banking, infrastructure, employment, public works, and economic recovery. In the logic of the chart, this represented a renewed national-development orientation. Banking reform, public investment, and state-directed recovery efforts all strengthened the Hamiltonian side. The chart therefore shows a strong rise in the American System during the Roosevelt period.
1941 — World War II
The year 1941 marks the United States’ entry into World War II after Pearl Harbor. The war economy produced one of the strongest examples of national economic mobilization in American history. Federal planning, military procurement, industrial production, credit allocation, infrastructure, and scientific-industrial coordination all expanded dramatically. The chart places the Hamiltonian system near a peak because wartime mobilization strongly resembled a national-development model.
1947 — Postwar decline / Truman
After World War II, the United States moved away from full wartime mobilization and toward a more liberalized international economic order. Under Harry S. Truman, the early postwar system included institutions and agreements that supported trade liberalization and global economic integration. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade began in this period and encouraged tariff reduction. The chart therefore shows a decline from the wartime Hamiltonian peak, because the postwar order increasingly institutionalized global trade and financial integration.
1971 — Nixon shock / off gold
In 1971, President Richard Nixon ended the dollar’s direct convertibility into gold. This was a major turning point in the international monetary system. In the chart’s interpretation, the Nixon shock accelerated a shift toward financialization, floating exchange rates, and a more flexible global monetary order. The Hamiltonian curve declines because the system moved further away from fixed national-credit discipline and toward a more open financial regime.
1981 — 1980s
The year 1981 marks the beginning of Ronald Reagan’s presidency and the broader economic turn associated with the 1980s. This period is commonly linked with deregulation, tax cuts, financial liberalization, and a stronger role for markets and global capital. Although defense spending and certain industrial sectors remained important, the overall policy direction is interpreted here as less Hamiltonian. The chart therefore continues the downward movement of the Hamiltonian curve during this period.
1994 — NAFTA / WTO era
NAFTA entered into force in 1994, and the World Trade Organization was established shortly afterward in 1995. Together, these developments marked a major acceleration of trade liberalization and global economic integration. In the chart’s interpretation, this period strengthened the Adam Smith / free-trade side and weakened the Hamiltonian national-industrial model. The Hamiltonian curve continues downward because tariff protection and national industrial policy became less dominant relative to global trade rules.
2001 — China-WTO / globalization
China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. This accelerated the integration of global manufacturing and intensified the relocation of industrial production into international supply chains. In the chart’s interpretation, this period represents one of the lowest points for the Hamiltonian system, because American industrial sovereignty and tariff-based protection were relatively weak. The Adam Smith / free-trade side dominates during this phase of globalization.
2012 — Minor rebound
Around 2012, the chart shows a modest rebound in the Hamiltonian curve. This reflects the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, including crisis response, the rescue of parts of the auto industry, early reshoring discussions, and renewed concern about manufacturing capacity. The rebound is limited because the broader globalized trade and financial order remained dominant. The chart therefore shows only a small upward movement rather than a full return to the American System.
2017 — Trump 1
Donald Trump’s first presidential term begins in 2017. In the chart, this period is interpreted as a rise in the Hamiltonian system because of tariffs, trade conflict with China, criticism of free-trade agreements, and a stronger rhetorical focus on reindustrialization and national economic sovereignty. The Hamiltonian curve rises throughout this period to show a move away from the previous free-trade consensus and toward a more protectionist, nationally oriented economic policy.
2021 — Biden
Joe Biden’s presidency begins in 2021. In the chart, this point marks a downward movement in the Hamiltonian curve. Biden pursued fewer industrial-policy measures through infrastructure spending and semiconductor policy, and more clean-energy manufacturing incentives, and his overall approach was less tariff-driven and less openly Hamiltonian than Trump’s. The Biden period is shown as a decline in the Hamiltonian direction.
2025 — Trump 2
Donald Trump’s second presidential term begins in 2025. The chart marks this as a renewed rise in the Hamiltonian system. This interpretation is based on stronger tariff orientation, reindustrialization rhetoric, economic nationalism, and a more direct challenge to the free-trade and globalization framework. The Hamiltonian curve rises sharply from 2025 to 2026 to show the model’s assumption that national-development policy again becomes more dominant.
2026 — Status today
The chart ends with the status point in 2026. In the model, the Hamiltonian system is shown as rising strongly compared with the Biden-period low. This reflects the interpretation that tariff policy, reindustrialization, and economic nationalism have become more dominant again.
